Welcome to Take The Over Monday Morning Recap:
Week 3 in the NFL is typically where teams start to show their true colors. We find out who is for real and who was a great September story – this week was tough to pick but here we are.
Last week was electric on the show, it seemed as though we couldn’t miss – touting a record of 7 -2 and maybe the gambling god’s has us right where they wanted because this week was NOT that. We finished the week with a record of 6 – 6.
W – Carolina -7.5: The Panthers found a way to win this game but at what cost? Well, the cost was their best player – CMC who will miss several weeks with a hamstring injury. It’s never something you want to hear because hamstrings just need time to heal, there’s not much treatment you can do for them. The Texans are as advertised this year, especially with Davis Mills at the helm. He’s young, inexperienced and will play like a rookie. There will be flashes of greatness but more so, there will be growing pains. Fade the Texans until further notice.
L – Giants -3: You know what? I deserve this. I am taking this L squarely on the jaw because I should’ve known better than to put money on anything related to New York... The Giants, The Jets, The Macy’s Day Thanksgiving Parade... they’re all dead to me. The Giants stuck around in the game and at points, looked like they would win and cover but at last, they did exactly what the universe suggested they would... lose and hurt my FanDuel account. I will bet against the Giants from this point forward and I’ll pay some student loan payments with the winnings. The bright spot for the Giants is Daniel Jones has went over in rushing yards the last 3 weeks. If it stays under 30 per game... Please hammer it.
W – Arizona -7.5 & o 30.5: This game was more back and forth than I’d like it to be but Kyler Murray and the team put the slumping Urban Meyers away when they needed to. Jacksonville is a mess. It seems like some sure bets moving forward are Trevor Lawrence over interceptions per game and bet against the Jags.
L – Seattle -1.5: Man, I can’t figure this Seattle team out. I still believe in them for some reason but they don’t have the magic they seemed to have in previous seasons. I’m going to spectate them for a while before laying anymore money on them. The Vikings on the other hand are hotter than that girl that wouldn’t call you back. GEEEZZZ Kirk Cousins is seemingly earning that paycheck... but of course it could all get derailed if he has to go on the covid list because of his vaccination status. Do I like the Vikings? What is life?
L – Baltimore -7.5: This is another head scratcher team. It seems like they’re going to be this year’s version of the Pittsburgh Steelers – they play up in big games and then play down to weaker competition. Hard to bet on them but THANK YOU JUSTIN TUCKER FOR THAT LEGGGGG... That field goal made me hit the teaser parlay I picked this week, so I appreciate you.
L – New England -3: I believed that BB would scheme something against Jameis but it looked like the defense was too good for Mac Jones and the boys. Next week NE invites a familiar face back home and there’s no chance he doesn’t beat the brakes off the Patriots. I don’t know what the line is but Tampa Bay winning that game just feels right.
W – Green Bay ML: Who doubted Aaron Rodgers? Was it you? Was it me? I don’t remember but let’s not do that again. He’s good. This team is for real and if this is his farewell tour in GB he’s making the most of it these last two weeks.
W – Teaser Parlay: Carolina -1.5, Bills -2.5, Ravens -1.5, Chargers +12.5 +210. This helped my unit count on Sunday. Thank you all for doing your part, especially you Justin Tucker... Send me your address, you’re on my Christmas Card Mailing list.
W – HOT TAKE: FOR THE SECOND TIME IN THE HISTORY OF THE SHOW, A HOT TAKE HIT. If you’ve been betting them, congrats on the money. Packers ML Parlayed with Chargers ML +762... Let’s GO!
W - Dallas -3.5: The Cowboys have been a pleasant surprise this year with the return of Dak Prescott and the other offensive pieces finally putting it together. The team spent its first 6 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball (the most in NFL history) and it's paying off. This team seems to be for real as they handled the Eagles and Jalen Hurts pretty handily. Gotta like what they're cooking up there in Dallas, especially with their only loss being to the Super Bowl Champs, Tampa Bay... by 2 points.
Welcome to Saturday morning. A glorious time of peace, recuperation, and degenerate behavior after a nice work week. Take a load off, and check out our picks below in this week’s College Footblog for some free winners today. You deserve it.
WVU (+17.5) vs #4 Oklahoma
Who doesn’t love some primetime Mountaineer action? Not to mention against a Sooner squad that’s only managed to beat Tulane and Nebraska by a combined 12 points. The mix between the Sooners lackluster start and the Mountaineers big win at home against Virginia Tech leads me to the only conclusion we can possibly draw: WVU and the points (almost worth a haus, tbh)
#16 Arkansas vs #7 Texas A&M OVER 47.5
Arkansas (pronounced ARK-in-saw for those at home; why it’s not ar-CAN-zis, I’ll never know) is averaging 40 points per game. Both teams have started 3-0 as we’re witnessing the revival of two football programs with diehard fan bases. Texas A&M isn’t having the same luck on offense, points-wise, but I think this SEC clash is capable of getting over 47.5 with relative ease.
Utah State (+9.5) vs Boise State over 69.5
Familiar with the “I believe that we will win” chant? You can thank Utah State for that.
Looking to be on a team averaging 570 yards of total offense per game? You can thank Utah State for that.
Looking for the team that beat Air Force as nine-point dogs? You can thank Utah State for that.
Boise State’s only win in 2021 was in a runaway against UTEP, if that tells you anything. I’m taking Utah State with the points, and then OVER 69.5 total points in this game.
Louisville (+0.5) @ Florida State
Two firsts for Louisville this week: 1) first game on the road, and 2) first conference game of the season. But they’ve beat UCF as seven-points dogs and lost to Kiffin’s Ole Miss, which the Rebels appear to actually be making an effort this year. On paper, this appears to be a pretty close matchup, however the 2021 Florida State Seminoles are in the process of writing “How To Get a Head Coach Fired For Dummies” book after starting 0-3 for the first time since the Gerald Ford Administration (including a loss to FCS Jacksonville State). This line has moved in favor of FSU throughout the week, but I’m not falling for it. Louisville moneyline, baby.
#20 Michigan State (-4.5) vs Nebraska
I don’t know what exactly they’ve figured out, but Michigan State has figured something out to start the season 3-0. Maybe it’s the zero interceptions? Or perhaps the average of 520 yards on offense? Or that they’re 3-for-3 on fourth down conversions? At any rate, stay hot, Sparty. I expect them to carry the momentum into this game against a Nebraska program that’s only seen one winning season since 2015. Sparty on, Wayne. Michigan State with the points.
Bonus Hot Take: PARLAY NCST ML & WVU ML (+3074). I’m not explaining myself, just do it.
Just like, the smoke cleared and week one of the NFL season was behind us. Here's look at how the Take The Over boys did!
L - Iowa vs Iowa State (-4.5). Iowa State got beat, I thought they'd come out with a little more juice in the game but they just couldn't get anything going and lost the game outright.
W - Pitt (-3.5) @ Tennessee. We were sweating it out in the first half as Tennessee looked like they were going to win the game but in the second half Pitt took control, won the game and covered!
T - Oregon @ Ohio State o/u 63. This Ohio State team just doesn't seem to have it this year. After a slow start against Minnesota, they laid an egg against an Oregon team who was without two of their best players. Like a bad relationship, I got my hopes up only to be let down.
W - Toledo (+17.5) vs Notre Dame. This Toledo team is no joke. They gave this Notre Dame team all they could handle on Saturday and I don't think they're done making noise yet. This was one of those bets that you didn't have to sweat it out till the end, we like those.
NFL Week One:
W - Dallas (+8.5) @ Tampa Bay. Hey, welcome back Dak Prescott. He looked very good in his first game back and they should've won the game if their kicker didn't smoke and upright and duck hook one like Drew off the first tee in a Saturday morning skins game. They proved that they are going to be real contenders in this division and can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the NFC.
W - CeeDee Lamb o 5.5 catches. Another great call by Drew on the podcast. CeeDee had some drops early, got it figured out and rolled the rest of the game with 7 catches and a TD.
L - Zeke Elliott o 13.5 carries. Mike McCarthy completely forgot that he had a running back this game. Asking Dak to throw it 60 times is not going to be a good recipe for success this season. I look for them to try and establish the run a bit more moving forward, control the clock and win some games.
W - Seattle (-2.5) @ Indianapolis. Russell Wilson, in September, is free money.
L - Atlanta (-3.5) vs Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts is looking to make a big leap in year two and this was a great start. Arthur Smith was extremely disappointing in his NFL head coaching debut.
W - Cincinnati (ML) vs Minnesota. It took all of overtime but the Bengals pulled off the upset! Also, Jamar Chase did a little better than I thought - I had him for 75 yards and a TD but he managed to get over 100 in the win. Great news for the Bengals if he can keep this pace up.
L - Tennessee (-3.5) vs Arizona. What is life. Arizona came out and looked great, the same cannot be said for the Titans. This was probably the biggest shock of the weekend.
W - San Fran 49ers o 27. Everybody was scoring in this game, I'm pretty sure 2 guys in section 103 and a security guard scored a TD during the game. Easy money as it went over in the first half!
W - LA Chargers (+1.5) @ Washington. Fitzmagic getting hurt early on, definitely helped the Chargers chances and they were able to pull it out. Another solid contest for Justin Herbert and Brandon Staley gets a win in his first game as a head coach.
W - Chicago vs LA Rams o 47. MATT STAFFORD. GEEEEEEEEEEEZ. Have yourself a day. Rams look like they're going to be stupid good this season.
L - Green Bay vs New Orleans o 50. I think this game would've gone over a million out of a million times if the Packers would've helped out AT ALL. Ugh. Tough one. Lots of questions are going to be coming out of Green Bay if they look like this in week 2.
Overall 9 - 5 - 1. Not our best week but anytime you're making money in sports betting, it's a good day. Looking forward to week 2!
Is this thing on? Do we have to test keyboards the same way we do microphones? This is strange. Am I making this blog using only speech-to-text? Maybe.
WELCOME to the first written content from your friends at Take The Over, the only podcast that records on Wednesdays and gives you free money. Only one of those is true, but I digress. This week’s blog is almost exclusively college football (aka: a college footblog) and is sure to make your Saturday *that* much more enjoyable. Without further ado, here’s the scoop:
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones (-4)
Ever find yourself wondering what two cornfields would look like clashing on a football field? Well, wonder no more as this Saturday we can all witness the Battle of the Corn out in the Midwest. Actually, I’ve read that this game is sometimes affectionately referred to as “El Assico.” Neither of these offenses was great in Week 1, with Iowa beating Indiana thanks to two defensive scores (Indiana’s offense ain’t so hot, neither). Iowa’s QB managed to complete only 47% of his passes, which doesn’t sound so bad to me considering I earned a 39% on my 9th-grade geometry final, but in NCAA Division I Football terms, it’s not great. Iowa State has gained a reputation as a well-coached team under current Head Coach, and former University of Pittsburgh (H2P) defensive lineman, Matt Campbell who has held the reigns since 2016, and it’s about time we all give the Cyclones their due respect and stop acting shocked when they whoop ranked teams, especially at home. I’m taking Iowa State to win the Cy-Hawk Trophy, with the points.
Pitt (H2P) (-3.5) @ Tennessee
This game started at -2.5 and is now at -3.5 at the time of writing this blog, if that tells you anything (for the newbies: the lines can move for several reasons, but one of the more common reasons is the movement as a result of the money being wagered, so in this case, it appears Pitt has received the lion’s share of the wagering). 23-year-old Redshirt Senior Kenny Pickett has been legally drunk for two years now and you would expect him to have the faith of his teammates as he enters his last hurrah with the Panthers. *Knock on wood* Pitt actually covered in their first game of the season and I think can carry that offensive momentum into a friendly-hostile environment (Tennesseans are so polite and hospitable) and score enough touchdowns in the orange-and-white checkered end zones to cover the spread. I’m taking Pitt, with the points.
Oregon @ Ohio State, o/u 63
If you watched the first half of the Ohio State v. Minnesota game, I’d like to apologize on behalf of every Ohio State Football Booster. That wasn’t a great effort. Maybe some nerves, maybe a lack of focus, who knows? CJ Stroud looked like a rookie to the big stage in the game, but then the receiving corps realized they were much faster than the defense and started calling “Four Verticals” every play for big chunks of yards. It seemed both teams made halftime adjustments and points were being scored in bunches. The Buckeyes’ Offense seems to have the ability to adapt their game to the more-recent “speed” philosophy where they want points and they want them now, and that could turn into a shootout with my beloved Oregon Ducks. Well, I hope it turns into a shootout at least. Since the Ducks will be kicking off at 9:00am Pacific, I can envision a scenario where Ohio State scores 50+ and the Ducks end up with 13 BUT, but….but….we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. TAKE THE OVER in this one.
NC State @ Mississippi State, o/u 51
I had a chance to become intimate with spectating the Mississippi State Football Program about a decade ago during the Dan Mullen Era, and even said under my breath one time that I thought college-Dak would be a nice replacement for Big Ben in Pittsburgh (shoutout to me for having an eye for talent). But I did learn that there’re two things that are consistent: 1) the Bulldogs can score a lot of points, and 2) the Bulldogs can give up a lot of points. They are very good at both. Just like how they gave up 34 points to Louisiana Tech last week, meanwhile NC State hung 45 on USF. If we can score one point for each cowbell rung is Stark Vegas this weekend, we’ll be just fine. TAKE THE OVER in this ACC/SEC clash.
BONUS HOT TAKE
Don’t say DKnop never did anything nice for you. Parlay* Jets ML and Bengals ML +674 and take your winnings straight to Live! Casino Pittsburgh and put it all on black one time. You’re welcome.
*Parlay: a wager type in which multiple bets are linked together to create a greater payout. It's treated as one big bet, so every game within the parlay must win for the bet to win.
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